Evergreen, Conifer and Bailey Real Estate
Evergreen real estate has seen the same thing as the rest of the Colorado market including Conifer and Bailey as well. We are seeing softening across the state. It is still slightly in favor of sellers but not nearly like it was the year. As I predicted (with my magical crystal ball) this fall is starting to show a leveling off in the buyer sediment as well as in the actually numbers. As we know and have mentioned in other real estate posts the numbers always lag the market by a month or two. Reason is that most contracts are written with at least a 30 day close (cash offers are sometimes shorter and government backed loans are longer).
Let's look at the first indicator we usually look at to show us what is going on in our real estate market. Keep in mind this is for Evergreen, Conifer and Bailey. The chart shows days on market. This is not a very great sample this time because of the low number of actually closings we have had in the recent 12 months. It is only 1,108 listings over the last the 12 months. Although it is a small amount of data it is still data that shows us how the real estate is going in the area. Ask any Evergreen Realtor and they will tell you the same thing, we need to have more inventory still. We are seeing days on market increase over the last 3 months. I see us still hitting much longer days on market in the coming months as well.
This next chart is the close price to original price. We have used this chart in the past to determine the health in the market. It shows what the buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept. Obviously in a seller's market they will not budge far off list price. They just take the attitude "someone will pay this price so we will wait for the next offer tomorrow." As yo can see in May of this year we were over 99% and that includes offers over full price as well so those would have been counted as over 100%. I also see this number going down in the coming months as sellers begin to list their homes closer to true value and not "testing the market".
As we move on to look at the number of housing units sold in the past 12 months we will see a steady decline month over month but about the same as last time this year. This is a seasonal thing as well as an inventory thing. We are seeing this being more of a norm these days.
So the opinion of this Denver Foothills Realtor is that we still need more inventory for both sides. Many buyers have just given up looking because of the lack of inventory and that hurts the sellers because we aren't getting a true sampling of the market to determine true market value. Buyers need more inventory because many are feeling they are just settling for a home. This will help us in 5 years when they decide to move but isn't helping us much at the moment.